The Rising Success of Populist Parties: Europe Must Prepare Differently
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has emerged as the largest party in two eastern German state elections. It won 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt on 6 September and, according to provisional results, 38.2% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on 20 September. These results deserve attention well beyond Germany.
France faces a presidential election in 2027, and it is far from the only European country confronting questions about political polarisation, public trust and the integrity of electoral debate. The German results are a reminder that preparation for the next election must begin long before the campaign’s final weeks.
We should be careful about what these results tell us. Voters have many reasons for their choices, and there is no basis for claiming that disinformation caused the AfD’s victories. But we cannot ignore the environment in which citizens form their opinions: one where misleading claims, hate speech and attacks on public figures can spread quickly and where AI makes convincing false content easier to produce.
Our reflections through AI4DEBUNK have reinforced a practical lesson. Technology can help people check content and identify manipulation, but useful tools must respond to the needs of the people who will use them. Exchanges with journalists, researchers, policymakers and citizens have also underlined the importance of trust, accessible information and cooperation across sectors.
This means preparing elections differently in three ways.
First, monitor the information environment throughout the electoral cycle. Researchers, journalists, civil society and electoral authorities need ways to detect emerging disinformation, investigate its spread and communicate verified information promptly. Monitoring should be transparent, evidence based and respectful of legitimate political expression.
Second, take hate speech and intimidation seriously. Candidates, elected representatives, journalists and community leaders must be able to participate in public debate without facing sustained abuse or threats. When people are pushed out of that debate, voters lose voices and perspectives too.
Third, strengthen democratic institutions and the people who serve in them. Electoral authorities need resources to explain how voting works and respond to false claims. Elected representatives need support to engage with citizens, address concerns and rebuild trust between elections. Independent media and local organisations need the capacity to ask difficult questions and reach communities that national campaigns may overlook.
These questions also inform the proposed DIGI-TRUST project, which is awaiting evaluation. Its ambition is to examine threats to electoral integrity and develop practical responses with partners across Europe. The urgency of that work is clear, whatever the proposal’s outcome.
The response to the success of populist parties cannot be confined to an election night or a fact-check after a falsehood has gone viral. It requires sustained attention to citizens’ concerns, stronger public institutions and an information space in which people can make choices freely and with confidence. Europe’s next elections are already approaching. We should prepare for them now.
Pascaline Gaborit
